Housing: Are we close to the bottom?

Published on Friday, August 15, 2008

Good news and bad news on the home front. But, maybe – just maybe – there really is a floor developing in the long-plummeting housing market. It’s based on July’s simultaneous drop in home prices and the first rise in sales volume since February.

The price decline between last month and June of 6.6 percent dropped a median single-family home’s value below $300,000 for the first time since the housing market began its nearly three-year swoon.

That psychological barrier itself may signal to potential buyers it is time to move.

Meanwhile, prices actually had stabilized through the late spring and early summer before July’s price drop. But, this most-recent decline clearly correlates with people jumping into the market based on a very health 4.1 percent rise in sales volume between last month and July of 2007. Most Realtors are convinced there is pent-up demand across the Cape; but, buyers have been leery to commit, for fear there prices may fall some more.

The big question: is a median $295,000 low enough, compared with $387,000 just last winter.
Here are the latest year-to-date numbers just released by Barnstable County Register of Deeds, John F. Meade, compared with the same 7-month period in 2007:

2008 sales volume: 3,521
2007 sales volume: 3,768
2008 total sales value: $1,664,004,878.00
2007 total sales value: $1,877,156,214.00
2008 median sales price: $314,450.00
2007 median sales price: $340,000.00
2008 mortgage volume: 9,858
2007 mortgage volume: 11,741
2008 total mortgage value: $3,258,344,200.00
2007 total mortgage value: $3,579,137,148.00
2008 median mortgage amount: $227,556.00
2007 median mortgage amount: $228,000.00

Month-to-month median home prices over last year 

July 2007: $345,500.00 +2.2%
Aug 2007: $355,000.00 +2.8%
Sep 2007: $387,500.00 +9.2%
Oct 2007: $345,000.00 -11%
Nov 2007: $330,000.00 +4.3%
Dec 2007: $329,000.00 -0.3%
Jan 2008: $323,000.00 -1.8%
Feb 2008: $327,450.00 +1.4%
Mar 2008: $310,000.00 -5.3%
Apr 2008: $315,000.00 +1.6%
May 2008: $315,501.00 +0.16%
June 2008: $315,900.00 +0.13%
July 2008: $295,000.00 -6.6%